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Tight security for the world's biggest election

MATT WADE HERALD CORRESPONDENT IN NEW DELHI

11 Apr, 2009 01:00 AM

THE world's biggest election is about to begin, but there are fears terrorism could spoil India's festival of democracy.

After repeated terrorist strikes across the country over the past year, officials fear the month-long national poll that starts on Thursday could be a target.

Intelligence services fear the Tamil Tigers, the Sri Lankan rebel group that killed the then Indian prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991, might strike again. The Sri Lankan Army has cornered the Tigers in a narrow strip of jungle in the island's north-east. It is feared Rajiv Gandhi's widow and leader of the Congress party, Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul and daughter Priyanka could be attacked in retaliation for India not pressing Sri Lanka to implement a ceasefire.

With 714 million registered voters, India is by far the world's biggest parliamentary democracy. Since the last general election five years ago, it has acquired 43 million new voters - about three times the size of Australia's entire electorate. The 543-seat lower house will be elected in five phases over the next month to ensure sufficient security is provided. About 4 million officials will use about 1.1 million voting machines to conduct the poll, which is entirely electronic. A security force of about 2 million will be deployed, and the result will be declared on May 16.

An MP in the lower house, the Lok Sabha, represents an average of 1.3 million constituents.

The former Test cricketer Chetan Chauhan played to his strengths when opening his campaign for a seat in parliament this week. He staged a cricket match with local youths at a park in the electorate he hopes to win in the sprawling suburbs of Delhi.

Chauhan, a candidate for the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, is one of several retired cricketers contesting India's 15th general election. They include the former captain Mohammad Azharuddin and batsman Navjot Sidhu.

However, the cricketers' appeal is relatively modest compared with that of the many movie stars who have used their fame to enter politics. The campaign in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, with a population of 75 million, has been electrified by the entrance of Chiranjeevi, the region's biggest movie star. When he held a rally to launch his Praja Rajyam party last August nearly a million people attended.

The array of celebrity candidates means that conventional politicians have to work hard for attention.

Sonia and Rahul Gandhi will address about 180 meetings as they battle to keep their Congress party in power.

Mrs Gandhi, the Italian-born grandmother who found herself India's most powerful politician after the assassination of her husband, has become a seasoned campaigner. She is credited with guiding Congress to an unexpected triumph at the last election that allowed it to form a coalition that has governed since.

Manmohan Singh, a Congress stalwart who has been Prime Minister for five years, is again the party's candidate for the post. But many expect Rahul will eventually replace the 76-year-old if Congress polls well.

The other leading candidate for prime minister is the 81-year old BJP leader, L. K. Advani. He promises strong leadership and decisive government, but the BJP has been plagued by internal divisions and struggled to deliver a clear political message. It is unlikely that any party will win an outright majority, meaning a volatile process of post-poll deal-making to form a coalition.

The most likely outcome is a multi-party alliance led by Congress or the BJP, but a "third front" government made up of regional and left-wing parties is possible.

S. Nihal Singh, a political analyst and former newspaper editor, said the rise of the regional parties would impede much-needed economic reform.

"They … tend to be more populist and they do more rabble-rousing so they could make it more difficult to follow sane policies," he said.

Professor Robin Jeffrey, of the Australian National University's Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, says Indians have become very proud of their electoral system.

"This is India's 15th election and that will embed the democratic process ever deeper. We are now going into the fourth generation of Indians that have now grown up expecting that, if nothing else, they will have the opportunity to change a government."